Gurus,
we are a chemical manufacturing company.
We are in the process of implementing Flex Planning in SAP. what is the best forecast model to use? Constnat, Seasonal or Seasonal Trend?
we are loading 24 months historic data and using the Seasonal Trend Model at Alpha .20, Beta .20 and Gamma .20 rate.
Doing this, we are coming up forecasts that are well below historic.. and also, forecast for 01/2015 is well below historic.
Anyone can please shed some lights as to which model is best for chemical industry and any hint on why we are getting well below average forecasts for upcoming periods?
Thank you in advance.